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PARIS: The war in Ukraine has sparked an energy supply crisis and upset the global power balance, prompting a flurry of diplomatic activity. One nation that has been reaping the benefits of recent engagements is Saudi Arabia.
Concerns over energy have restored the Kingdom’s image in the eyes of European powers as a key player in this multipolar, post-COVID world order — one that could rebalance oil markets, and perhaps beckon the continent into a clean energy future.
The diplomatic circuit began in April when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. This was followed in mid-July with US President Joe Biden’s visit to Jeddah.
On July 26, the crown prince was traveling once again, this time heading to Athens for talks with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the country’s business community. Two days later, it was France’s turn to welcome the crown prince.
These latest stops mark Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s first visit to the EU since 2018 when relations with Washington and the Kingdom’s European allies soured. Today, in the face of new economic realities, the past, it would appear, is well and truly in the past.
Boosting the supply of oil and gas to Europe has become a critical issue in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting Western embargo on Russian hydrocarbons.
If Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen in Western capitals as the cause of this disruption, then Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is viewed as the remedy. As a result, the crown prince entered into talks with Greek and French leaders from a position of strength.
Western capitals want to convince the world’s biggest oil exporter to open the floodgates and bring down prices, which have contributed to a cost of living crisis for many nations still emerging from the economic turmoil of the pandemic.
Riyadh has been reluctant to meet Western demands, however, in part because it has solid partnerships with Russia, such as the natural gas project in Siberia directed by the Russian group Novatek.
The stage is therefore set for Saudi Arabia to reap the benefits of Western reengagement.
Saudi delegations have not arrived empty-handed, however. While in Athens, the crown prince signed agreements on maritime transport, energy, defense, waste management and culture. Experts say that the joint project to install a cable connecting the two countries is especially important, promising to provide Europe with cheaper energy.
Saudi-Greek cooperation could transform Greece from a debt-burdened nation into a regional energy, trade, and communications hub connecting Europe and Asia, and into a gateway for new green hydrogen technologies to help the continent realize its net-zero aims.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s 19th largest economy, has initiated an economic and social reform agenda to reimagine its future and its place in the region — Vision 2030 — and is eager to attract outside investment.
The vision, launched in 2016, offers a new, diversified model for economic development that is more inclusive — especially for women and young people — and which will create jobs and wealth in sectors beyond hydrocarbons, from tourism, entertainment, and tech, to retail, renewables and smart city megaprojects.
By 2030, these new industries could create revenues equivalent to those now generated by oil — about $250 billion.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has shown his determination to radically transform the Saudi economy and society by freeing it from its dependence on hydrocarbons, which make up 42 percent of its gross domestic product, 70 percent of its income and 90 percent of its exports.
Despite the economic setbacks of the COVID-19 pandemic, the transformation is already in motion. Within the next decade, the Kingdom will emerge as a major player in tourism (with 100 million visitors by 2030), in entertainment (with a market worth of $8 billion) and a cutting-edge defense industry thanks to technology transfers.
Then there is the prospect of growth in renewables, manufacturing and mining, the Kingdom’s ambitions in food security, biotechnologies and artificial intelligence, not to mention large-scale logistics and airport infrastructure plans.
To power this transformation, the Kingdom relies on its Public Investment Fund — a $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund — which recently acquired stakes in Starbucks, Marriott, Disney, Boeing, City Group, Facebook, Germany’s Signa Sports, the Dutch TMF Group, and also bought Newcastle United F.C.
With this wealth, Riyadh intends to build major national reference companies alongside Saudi Aramco — the world’s leading oil exporter — in transport, mining, renewable energies, digital and automotive.
And the cultural sector will not be left behind either. The Kingdom is a candidate to host the World Expo in 2030, having seen its pavilion awarded best exhibition venue at Expo 2020 Dubai.
Perhaps the most striking project the Kingdom has launched is NEOM — a contraction of the Greek word “Neo,” or “new,” and the letter “M” for mostaqbal, or “future,” in Arabic. This $500 billion smart city will be at the forefront of tech and sustainability, and promises to revolutionize the urban experience.
Last year, at the fifth edition of the Future Investment Initiative, also known as “Davos in the desert,” foreign investors learned the Arabic word Marhaba — “welcome.” It is a word that will shape relations with the Kingdom over the coming decade.
During the forum, the Saudi crown prince presented world leaders in finance and technology with a clear ambition — to establish the Kingdom as a key player in the global economy.
When he meets with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris this week, the crown prince will bring this same sense of ambition and purpose, strengthened, no doubt, by the Kingdom’s new economic clout.
• Azouz Begag is a writer and former minister (2005-2007), researcher in economics and sociology. He is a researcher at the CNRS. Twitter: @AzouzBegag
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News’ point of view.
MEXICO CITY: Authorities in Mexico said Thursday that at least 94 migrants had to bash their way out of a suffocating freight trailer abandoned on a highway in the steamy Gulf coast state of Veracruz. Carlos Enrique Escalante, the head of the state migrant attention office, said migrants had to break holes in the freight container to get out, some apparently through the roof. Some were injured when they leapt from the roof of the trailer, but their injuries did not include any broken bones and were not considered life-threatening. Escalante said local residents near the town of Acayucan heard the noise, and helped open the freight container. A much larger number of migrants were believed to have been aboard and fled after escaping. But the 94 migrants from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador were turned over to immigration authorities. The discovery of the trailer Wednesday recalled the tragedy in San Antonio, Texas on June 27, when 53 migrants died because they had been left in a sweltering freight truck. In the southern Mexico state of Chiapas, which borders Guatemala, yet another group of migrants continued demanding temporary visas they would permit them to travel across Mexico. They were still in the town of Huixtla on Thursday after leaving Tapachula earlier this week, saying they can’t wait months for slow immigration paperwork in Tapachula.
WASHINGTON: The District of Columbia has requested National Guard assistance to help stem a “growing humanitarian crisis” prompted by thousands of migrants that have been sent to Washington by a pair of southern states. Mayor Muriel Bowser formally asked the White House last week for an open-ended deployment of 150 National Guard members per day as well as “suitable federal location” for a mass housing and processing center, mentioning the D.C. Armory as a logical candidate. She met on July 21 with Liz Sherwood-Randall, assistant to the president for homeland security, and Julie Chavez Rodriguez, director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs. The crisis began in spring when Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey announced plans to send busloads of migrants to Washington, D.C., in response to President Joe Biden’s decision to lift a pandemic-era emergency health order that restricted migrant entry numbers. Since then the city estimates that nearly 200 buses have arrived, delivering more than 4,000 migrants to Union Station, often with no resources and no clue what to do next. A coalition of local charitable groups has been working to feed and shelter the migrants, aided by a $1 million grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. But organizers have been warning that both their resources and personnel were nearing exhaustion. “This reliance on NGOs is not working and is unsustainable — they are overwhelmed and underfunded,” Bowser said in her letter. She has repeatedly stated that the influx was stressing her government’s ability to care for its own homeless residents and required intervention from Biden’s government. “We know we have a federal issue that demands a federal response,” Bowser said at a July 18 press conference. In her letter, Bowser harshly criticizes Abbott and Ducey, accusing them of “cruel political gamesmanship” and saying the pair had “decided to use desperate people to score political points.” Bowser does not have the authority to personally order a National Guard deployment, an issue that has become emotionally charged in recent years as a symbol of the district’s entrenched status as less than a state. Her limited authority played a role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol building by supporters of former President Donald Trump. When it became clear that the US Capitol Police were overmatched by the crowds, Bowser couldn’t immediately deploy the district guard. Instead, crucial time was lost while the request was considered inside the Pentagon, and protesters rampaged through the building.
PARIS: Jack Lang is one of the prominent cultural public personalities in France. He was minister of culture from 1981 until 1986, and again from 1988 until 1993. He was also minister of national education from 1992 to 1993, and from 2000 to 2002.
Lang has been deeply connected with Arab culture by virtue of his presidency of the Institut du Monde Arabe (IMA), or the Arab World Institute, in Paris since 2013. Under his leadership, the Arab World Institute, founded in Paris in 1980, has organized cultural workshops, concerts, conferences, exhibitions, festivals and activities both in France and around the Arab world.
The IMA has a museum, library and auditorium, and seeks to provide a secular location for the promotion of Arab civilization, art, knowledge and aesthetics as well as the teaching of Arabic. It was founded in 1980 by 18 Arab countries and France to research information about the Arab world, including its cultural and spiritual values.
Q. What is your perception of Franco-Saudi cooperation?
A. First of all, I welcome the visit of Saudi Arabia’s crown prince to Paris. This is an important event, which will certainly open up new possibilities in bilateral relations and will consolidate the political, economic, strategic and cultural ties between France and Saudi Arabia.
I am not directly linked to political life, so I do not have to comment on related issues. I know that there are differences that may arise; these are discussions that will undoubtedly take place between the leaders of the two countries, President Emmanuel Macron and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
For my part, I cannot forget that historically, the two founding countries of the IMA were Saudi Arabia, at the time of King Khalid, and France, with President Valery Giscard d’Estaing.
Q. What about Franco-Saudi cooperation in the context of cultural projects?
A. Saudi Arabia is a fabulous country that is developing many ambitious projects like the AlUla project, initiated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin Farhan Al-Saud, the Saudi minister of culture, and supported by France via the French agency in charge of the development plan for this site.
Personally, I belong to the advisory committee, operating under the authority of Prince Badr. The committee does exceptional work for the preservation of the site, its history and the beauty of these incredible places. Every time I go to AlUla, I am struck by the progress of archaeological, touristic, economic and social projects.
I am also impressed by the respect that AlUla officials have for the history of the sites and the local populations, who are fully associated with the project, which is indicative of the ambition the Kingdom sets for its cultural revolution.
In France, in Europe, and more generally in the West, we do not know enough about the extent to which Saudi Arabia is starting a real cultural revolution. If we compare the situation five years ago with that of today, we see a radical change brought about by the impetus of the crown prince in all areas of culture: Cinema, theater, museums, architecture and music.
There is a rather unique cultural breath and momentum in this country. I can cite the first Red Sea International Film Festival, organized in Jeddah last year, or the many exceptional projects scheduled in Riyadh, a city destined to become one of the greatest cultural capitals of the world.
It is the same for the other cities and regions of the country, which are experiencing this dynamic in all artistic and creative disciplines. What is being accomplished today in Saudi Arabia is astonishing and remarkable.
If the visit of the crown prince is an opportunity to make this happy and positive metamorphosis better known, it is wonderful. I can only rejoice in this extraordinary cultural effervescence which makes Saudi Arabia a major country in world culture.
Q. What is the place of youth in this “cultural revolution?”
A. This cultural, educational and scientific strategy mobilizes the youth, who represent the Saudi Arabia of tomorrow. Many young people re
cognize themselves through this new impetus. If we go today to Jeddah, Riyadh or elsewhere in the country, we see that a new cultural event takes place every week. It is kind of a permanent cultural revolution.
Personally, I am one of those people who thinks that each country must prioritize culture, youth, science and education. This is the choice made by the Saudi authorities to build the future of the country.
France, as a country committed for a long time to these issues, will find itself in full harmony with Saudi achievements.
Q. What about cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the IMA?
A. Since I have chaired the IMA, I have forged close relationships with the cultural leaders of the Kingdom. The crown prince has decided to provide financial support for the renovation of the mashrabiyas on the walls of the IMA building, designed by (French architect) Jean Nouvel.
We are discussing many projects, including the possible creation of an IMA in Riyadh and, above all, the possible support of Saudi Arabia for the renovation of the IMA museum, which is destined to become one of the most important museums of contemporary Arab art in the West.
PARIS: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s first visit to Paris in 2018 had exposure as an objective. At the time, he as well as Emmanuel Macron were making their first steps as young leaders.
Much has happened in four years, and the world, as we have known it, has changed. The first objective of the crown prince in Paris is to highlight the changes and other reforms undergone by the Kingdom.
As pointed out by Cedomir Nestorovic, professor of geopolitics at ESSEC, the important thing to assess is whether “the massive reforms and the structural change of the Saudi society driven by the crown prince have been sufficiently noticed abroad.”
The crown prince can boast today a real resume in terms of reforms.
He will be able to answer critics and face them with the positive dynamics to which Saudi Arabia has committed and underline the benefits of Arab modernity. When asked about the subject, several French legislators consider this visit to be strategically significant both for the crown prince and Macron.
Energy, according to Nestorovic, is of course the other focal point. During this period of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, gas and oil have become rare and expensive, and Europe apprehends the cold of winter.
By distancing itself from the conflict, Saudi Arabia managed, at first, to play the role of arbitrator, but the recent spectacular rapprochement between Vladimir Putin and his Turkish and Iranian counterparts reminded the Gulf monarchies that the Russian card could be a double-edged sword.
Also to be considered is the issue of Western leadership. By traveling to France, the crown prince seems to return the favor to Macron, who was the first Western head of state to visit him.
It also appears that relations have greatly improved and that France is increasingly present in Saudi Arabia.
If Macron understands the change of course initiated by the Kingdom for several years now, he will probably be in a better position than the US president to discuss energy issues.
Indeed, during the meeting with Joe Biden, Saudi Arabia pledged to support the West’s energy supply. But, for the time being, the real measures have not yet been taken. Similarly, the price of oil and gas has not really been addressed.
Macron and the crown prince have their own cards to play, by showing that the relationship between the West and Saudi Arabia no longer necessarily passes solely through the United States.
This section contains relevant reference points, placed in (Opinion field)
This visit, therefore, has a strategic dimension since it deals with Europe’s energy security. But it also has, as is so often the case, a political dimension. Will the two young leaders be able to understand each other better?
Will we be able to say that the new French approach in Saudi Arabia is more realistic and keeps pace with the reforms and the transformation of the Kingdom?
Given the Saudi delegation accompanying the crown prince, it seems that the “economic development” aspect will be at the heart of the talks.
Should contacts between economic leaders be as flourishing as expected, this will play a strong role in helping Saudi Arabia gain stature among nations as a major player.
The French Revolution of 1789 saw France transform from a monarchy to a republic, which came under the control of Napoleon Bonaparte 10 years later. After he became emperor of the First French Empire from 1804-1814, his armies conquered large swaths of continental Europe.
Another monarchy emerged from the wake of Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo in 1815, and Napoleon’s nephew created the Second Empire in 1852, becoming the last monarch to rule over France. He was ousted and the monarchy was replaced by the Third French Republic in 1870.
Throughout the 19th century and early 20th century, France maintained a large colonial empire across West Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
France sided with the Allied Powers during the Second World War, but was split in two during the conflict, with most of the country controlled by a collaborationist, pro-German government.
The country slowly recovered after the end of the war, but long wars in its colonies in Indochina (now Vietnam) and Algeria saw it ousted from these regions, and by the 1960s, most of France’s former colonies had achieved independence.
France has been a full member of the UN Security Council and NATO since the end of the Second World War, and played a vital role in the establishment of the EU.
France has a large Muslim and Arab population owing to its former colonies in north Africa, and many of these populations suffer from social alienation and high unemployment rates.
The country has been the site of unrest and protests against the enforcement of strict secular policies and controversial bills, some of which have attempted to ban the wearing of headscarves or traditional Muslim face coverings in public.
PARIS: What can Saudi Arabia do to help France ease the looming energy crisis resulting from the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, and what can France — and Europe — do to support Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries if the Iranian nuclear deal falls by the wayside?
These questions, potential political emergencies, weigh heavily on the talks in Paris between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and French President Emmanuel Macron. During their meeting, the two leaders will strive to find solutions.
David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, is of the view that the crown prince’s visit “is part of a resumption of contact with Europeans in general, in the context of the war in Ukraine and the ensuing energy problem.”
Preparing for the post-oil period, on June 2 the informal alliance of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, agreed to increase production by 216,000 barrels per day in addition to the 432,000 bpd set in previous months.
However, this increase does not seem to be of a sufficient level to reassure Europeans, especially as winter approaches.
It is therefore necessary to continue efforts to alleviate the effects of the embargo on Russian oil imports, says Rigoulet-Roze. The natural gas sector is also under pressure, so “it is hoped that the Gulf countries will lend a sympathetic ear to the pleas for energy supplies.”
If Europeans need to secure their energy supply, for the Gulf countries it is, above all, a question of preparing for the post-oil period.
“Europe in general, and France in particular, hopes that the petromonarchies will prove receptive to their requests for guaranteeing hydrocarbon supplies. The Gulf countries, for their part, would like to develop synergies with Europe on this subject,” Rigoulet-Roze told Arab News en Francais.
“In this context, Europe and France have expertise, particularly with regard to renewable energies, whether green hydrogen, solar, wind.”
Regarding the burning Middle East geopolitical issues and the deadlock in Iranian nuclear negotiations, the picture is not so clear. “Overall, it looks like the JCPOA renegotiation will be difficult to finalize and that is what the US now thinks due to a proven form of obstruction on the part Iran,” Rigoulet-Roze said.
“It is in this context that US President Joe Biden’s tour took place, focused in particular on the establishment of a regional security system in which Saudi Arabia would constitute a central piece, even if Riyadh has not yet agreed to normalization of relations with Tel Aviv, unlike the fellow GCC members who have committed themselves to the Abraham Accords.”
Both the French and the Americans continue to say that they are in favor of signing a new nuclear accord with Iran, but time is running out, Rigoulet-Roze said, adding that President Macron reiterated the point a few days ago during a telephone conversation with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.
France has positioned itself in a way to maintain a channel of discussion with Iran, because it is not possible to cut ties. Macron adopts a similar approach vis-a-vis Russian President Vladimir Putin, believing that it is necessary, despite the circumstances, to try to keep the channels of dialogue open.
“This approach with President Vladimir Putin has been criticized because it has not necessarily been successful and it may be the same with Tehran. But he considers that it is still necessary to try,” Rigoulet-Roze said.
But if the Iranian nuclear deal were to eventually fall apart, what would happen the next day?
To Rigoulet-Roze, the problem is that Europe does not yet have a strategic identity, and is “not a partner” like the US.
“It will therefore be necessary to return to the strengthening of the regional architecture envisioned by the US, with all the difficulties that this implies,” he said.
The US would like to set up a kind of Israeli-Arab-Sunni NATO equipped with an anti-ballistic system to mitigate the growing threat of drones, and even missiles, of Iranian origin, used by Tehran’s proxies in Yemen or elsewhere.
The UAE indicated at the end of Biden’s Middle East tour that it does not intend to be part of any anti-Iranian axis. The same message, in a more modified way, has come from Jordan, according Rigoulet-Roze.
The tipping point will come only when it becomes clear whether the nuclear agreement will be saved or not “and until this is established, the different countries concerned will have difficulty in communicating their official positions with clarity,” Rigoulet-Roze said.
“The Iranians are stalling the process. It is becoming clear that we will not be able to finalize an agreement as we still hoped for at the beginning of 2021 when negotiations were relaunched,” he added.
The French Revolution of 1789 saw France transform from a monarchy to a republic, which came under the control of Napoleon Bonaparte 10 years later. After he became emperor of the First French Empire from 1804-1814, his armies conquered large swaths of continental Europe.
Another monarchy emerged from the wake of Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo in 1815, and Napoleon’s nephew created the Second Empire in 1852, becoming the last monarch to rule over France. He was ousted and the monarchy was replaced by the Third French Republic in 1870.
Throughout the 19th century and early 20th century, France maintained a large colonial empire across West Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
France sided with the Allied Powers during the Second World War, but was split in two during the conflict, with most of the country controlled by a collaborationist, pro-German government.
The country slowly recovered after the end of the war, but long wars in its colonies in Indochina (now Vietnam) and Algeria saw it ousted from these regions, and by the 1960s, most of France’s former colonies had achieved independence.
France has been a full member of the UN Security Council and NATO since the end of the Second World War, and played a vital role in the establishment of the EU.
France has a large Muslim and Arab population owing to its former colonies in north Africa, and many of these populations suffer from social alienation and high unemployment rates.
The country has been the site of unrest and protests against the enforcement of strict secular policies and controversial bills, some of which have attempted to ban the wearing of headscarves or traditional Muslim face coverings in public.