The fate of a November ballot measure that could allow San Diego to start charging single-family homeowners for trash collection will likely depend on whether a vigorous opposition campaign emerges — and on how well supporters explain some complex arguments in favor of the measure.

A recent poll funded by supporters found 64 percent support and only 22 percent opposition to the measure, which would repeal a law that provides free trash pickup to single-family homes while forcing businesses and residents of most condos and apartments to pay private haulers.

This story is for subscribers

We offer subscribers exclusive access to our best journalism. Thank you for your support.

Critics stress that the poll didn’t explicitly ask respondents whether single-family homeowners should pay a new fee for something they’ve long received for free, instead asking whether respondents would support the city being allowed to recover its costs for trash collection services.

The poll used that phrasing based on what they expected the city’s ballot statement to say, and City Attorney Mara Elliot’s initial ballot statement ended up using similar language.

But an aggressive opposition campaign could highlight the new fee that would be imposed on many voters.

“This will be a very steep challenge if single-family homeowners are alerted to the fact that they are going to have to pay a new fee,” said political consultant Tom Shepard, who coordinated the campaign for the ballot measure that got Petco Park built.

Former City Councilman Carl DeMaio said this week that he has no doubt single-family homeowners will be alerted to what he calls a disingenuous effort by city officials and labor unions to get more money from city residents.

“We will organize and fund an aggressive ‘no’ campaign on this measure,” said DeMaio, estimating his Reform California organization could raise $300,000 to $400,000 for such a campaign.

DeMaio has already launched the websites stopthegarbagetax.com and stopthegarbagetax.org. He says the campaign will focus on the impact to single-family homeowners and on his contention that the ballot statement doesn’t reflect that clearly.

The campaign will also stress that approving the measure would give the city the license to raise unlimited fees to cover trash collection services, similar to how the city raises water and sewer rates without public votes.

Shepard said measures that would impose a fee or tax are always vulnerable at the polls, but noted this measure faces the additional challenge of appearing on the ballot in an off-year election, when the people most directly affected — single-family homeowners — typically make up a greater share of the electorate.

Shepard said that even without an aggressive opposition campaign, many voters will become aware of the ballot measure’s fee increase when they see the ballot statement submitted by opponents for the information guide sent to each voter.

“On a difficulty scale of 1 to 10, this is like an 8,” Shepard said.

Another potential problem for the measure‘s supporters is that the impact on single-family homeowners — a new fee amounting to several hundred dollars a year — is much more intense than the diffuse benefits that other residents would get from amending the law, known as the People’s Ordinance.

Shepard said that makes it crucial that supporters spend enough money to explain each of those benefits to voters thoroughly.

The Municipal Employees Association, which represents more than 4,000 white-collar city workers, has funded three polls gauging support for the measure and has indicated it will help pay for a campaign supporting the measure.

The measure will also get strong support from City Council President Sean Elo-Rivera and Councilmember Joe LaCava, who spearheaded efforts at City Hall behind the measure. The council voted 7-2 Monday to place the measure on the November ballot.

Council voted 7-2 to put measure on November ballot that supporters say could boost city revenue by $50M a year

Supporters say all San Diego residents would benefit from the measure, because charging single-family homeowners for trash pick-up would raise roughly $50 million a year in revenue that could be used for libraries, parks, firefighting, law enforcement and other priorities.

Another key argument in support of the measure is that the People’s Ordinance provides an unfair freebie to one set of residents at the expense of others.

Supporters ask why single-family homeowners, who are typically better off financially, shouldn’t have to pay for something that people living in apartments and condos, who are typically worse off financially, must pay for.

Opponents, including DeMaio and the San Diego County Taxpayers Association, say the inequity should be solved in the opposite direction. They say free trash service should be extended to people living in apartments and condos. Doing that would roughly double the city’s costs to something like $100 million a year.

There are also strong environmental arguments in favor of the measure. Because the city provides free trash pick-up to 53 percent of its homes, it’s nearly impossible to enact effective “pay as you throw” programs that give discounts for producing less trash.

Such programs are considered crucial to reducing the amount of trash produced in San Diego, which is key to the city’s zero-waste goals and its climate action plan.

Another potential selling point of the measure is that vacation rentals, which could be considered businesses, benefit from the freebie when the rentals are single-family homes. Supporters make similar arguments about accessory dwelling units, which are sometimes called granny flats, and about mini-dorms.

Another positive, supporters say, is that the measure would fold the cost of trash bins into the overall cost of trash service, eliminating the need for customers to pay repeatedly for new bins. Supporters say the proposed change in bin policy polled particularly well with voters.

While some critics say the measure could financially strain single-family homeowners who are barely getting by, Elo-Rivera says there will be waiver and subsidy programs for hardship cases if the measure passes.

The July poll funded by supporters appears to show strong support for at least the ballot statement voters will see. It typically takes a strong opposition campaign to defeat a measure that leads 64 percent to 22 percent when it’s placed on the ballot.

The measure also appears highly unlikely to face opposition from two key usual suspects, labor unions and business interests. The measure has been endorsed by several key labor unions and the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce.

So the main source of opposition appears likely to be from anti-tax groups like DeMaio’s Reform California and the county Republican Party.

Jordan Gascon, executive director of the county Republican Party, said Friday that the party is “99 percent likely” to oppose the measure and urge its members to vote against it.

Neighbors for a Better San Diego, a quality-of-life advocacy group made up primarily of single-family homeowners, hasn’t taken a position yet, said group chairman Geoff Heuter.

Heuter said he suspects many single-family homeowners will oppose the measure, not just because of the new fee. Because the city would be allowed to pass all its costs on to trash customers under the measure, it would eliminate the pressure the city now faces to be economically efficient, he said.

If voters approve the measure in November, the city would spend roughly two years analyzing how much it costs to provide trash service and then figure out how much customers should pay.

Because there wouldn’t be an immediate fee increase or tax, the measure only needs approval from a simple majority instead of the two-thirds approval required for measures that would raise revenue for a specific purpose.

Get Essential San Diego, weekday mornings

Get top headlines from the Union-Tribune in your inbox weekday mornings, including top news, local, sports, business, entertainment and opinion.

You may occasionally receive promotional content from the San Diego Union-Tribune.

The unique history of San Diego’s trash service is rivaled by the inequity of its fee structure

President Joe Biden has tested positive for COVID-19 again, slightly more than three days after he was cleared to exit coronavirus isolation

Coming after a spate of mass shootings, the vote gave Democrats another opportunity to draw a distinction with Republicans before the midterm elections.

The House has approved wide-ranging legislation aimed at helping communities in the West cope with increasingly severe wildfires and drought fueled by climate change.

$1.2 billion will be disbursed to the 3.6 million residential customers across the state.

Attorney General Merrick Garland headlined a White House event bringing together pro bono lawyers, bar associations and public interest groups to discuss how best to offer legal services and protections for women seeking abortions

Privacy Policy Terms of Service Sign Up For Our Newsletters